Monday, On the Margin
Business and consumer confidence, SOFIPOs, vehicle sales, asset managers, APR on credit cards, remittances, employment and border crossings.
As we published on our “Predictions” article a couple of weeks ago, starting this week, you’ll receive two weekly emails from us:
The Standard Essay – Published every Thursday, this article will focus on a company, industry, or macro trend, providing you with in-depth analysis and insights.
On the Margin – Sent on Mondays, this will summarize the most important data points related to Mexico from the previous week, supported by the extensive data sources we at tukan have been curating for over three years.
We hope you find these updates useful! If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us.
Weary companies
Business confidence contracted by 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) in December but showed a slight improvement compared to November (+1.3% month-over-month, MoM).
This marks the 23rd consecutive month of an overall “optimistic” business sentiment, according to INEGI data. However, a closer look at individual industries reveals a cautious outlook: construction executives lean toward a “pessimistic” outlook, with manufacturing and wholesale companies following closely behind.
Investment appetite is also rapidly declining after reaching record-high levels of “excitement” in 2023, driven largely by the aftermath of the country’s controversial judicial reform.
…but optimistic consumers
Consumer confidence remained stable YoY in December, with a slight dip compared to November.
Interestingly, the “intent to purchase” indices for household appliances and vehicles remain near record highs. Vehicle purchase intent rose by nearly 15% YoY, while the intent for home appliances saw a minor contraction of 3% YoY.
It’s worth noting that "intent to purchase" metrics typically remain below the 50-point threshold, reflecting a “cautious bias” among consumers when committing to significant expenses, a trend also mirrored in business confidence surveys.
Vehicle sales
New vehicle sales are projected to close the year at nearly 1.5 million units, according to INEGI's preliminary estimates—a nearly 10% annual increase.
This recovery follows several challenging years for the market since the pandemic and is set to surpass 2018 sales figures. However, the record high of 1.6 million units, achieved in 2016, remains unmatched.
SOFIPOs
Mexican fintechs operating as SOFIPOs recorded over 6% monthly growth (+104% annualized) in loan book balances during November.
The joint non-performing loan (NPL) ratio reached 6.8%, up 15 basis points (bps) from October. Notably, Fondeadora and Kubo Financiero reported NPL ratios exceeding 15%.1
Included in the fintech analysis are: Nu, Stori, Finsus, Crediclub, Fondeadora, Kubo, and Klar.
Funds
Net assets under management by Mexican fund operators grew by more than 24% YoY in November, closing the year with portfolios totaling over MXN $4.2 trillion.
Since May 2023, the industry has maintained double-digit YoY growth—a feat last observed in July 2018. Of the 12 funds managing over MXN $50 billion in net assets, 10 reported YoY growth exceeding 20%.
Credit card's APR
According to Banxico, commercial banks offered over 140 credit card products as of October 2024. Among these, half had an APR (known as CAT in Spanish) exceeding 70%. The median APRs by card type were as follows:
Platinum cards: 46% (down 117 bps YoY).
Gold cards: 88% (up 160 bps YoY).
Classic cards: 85% (down 120 bps YoY).
The institutions with the highest APRs were:
Santander and HSBC in platinum cards.
Invex in gold cards.
Banorte and Scotia in classic cards.
Remittances
Remittance inflows to Mexico totaled USD $5.4 billion in November, an 11% YoY increase, though 5% lower compared to October.
Year-to-date, remittance flows have stabilized, with a modest 3% YoY increase as of November.
Employment
Mexico’s economically active population reached 61.6% in November 2024, 100 bps higher than the same month in 2022.
Unemployment and job informality rates dropped by 20 and 80 bps, respectively, compared to November 2022.
We compare employment to 2022 figures because INEGI was unable to collect data from Guerrero during November 2023 due to hurricane Otis’ impact on the region.
Border crossings
In November, over 618,000 trucks crossed from Mexico into the United States (+1.6% YoY), according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).
Year-to-date, truck crossings are up 3.5% compared to 2023, marking the highest figures on record.
Interestingly, Canadian - U.S. crossings are presenting an opposing trend…
Want more data?
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This is without adjusting for write-offs, which means that the “true” default rates could be much higher.