New Horizons
New Horizons
What has happened with Mexican air traffic since the cancellation of the NAICM?
Prior to 2020, close to half of Mexico’s total air passengers passed through the boarding gates of the Mexico City International Airport (AICM), causing the country’s main airfield to surpass its 30 million traffic capacity almost every year since 2013.
Four years later, the cancellation of the New Mexico City International Airport (NAICM) — the massive infrastructure project aimed to decongest the Mexican capital — seems as something buried in the past.
Just during the first 7 months of 2024, Mexico City’s passenger count has dropped to just 37% of the country’s total regular air traffic. A figure 12 percentage points lower than the one reported in 2019, the first full year after the NAICM referendum.1
Prior to the official cancellation of the project, much was discussed about the potential consequences of such a decision. However, there has been little discussion since 2020 regarding what has actually transpired.
In today’s Margin article, we explore the shift in Mexico’s air traffic operations since 2019. Have route combinations reshaped? Has there been a clear effect on the publicly-listed airport operators? Which other hubs might be developing due to this decision?
Taking Flight
Based on CONAPO population projections and SCT data, Mexican air passengers per capita closed out 2023 at a rate of 1.4, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% over the past 13 years.
Excluding Mexico City from the equation, the traffic penetration rate increased at a slightly higher 6.8% CAGR during the same period (1.4 percentage points on top of the 5.4% reported for the country’s capital).
However, much of this is influenced by the country’s touristic hubs that drive most of international traffic into the country. According to SCT data, international flights made up 46% of the country’s total passengers — a category, where Mexico City’s airport ranks just behind Cancun with 29.5% of the total market share.
Since the NAICM’s cancellation, Mexico City has lost around 7 percentage points of market share in terms of international passengers. ASUR’s Cancun “captured” 4 of those points, while GAP’s Guadalajara, Cabo, and Vallarta captured 1.5 points in aggregate. The AIFA managed to gain just 0.3 points since its inauguration.