Monday, On the Margin
Consumer data; SOCAPs; industrial activity; vehicle sales and production; airports and tourism.
Early warnings
Signs of deterioration in the current economic climate continue to emerge. This time, we saw the impact directly on statistics surrounding consumer spending.
Credit and debit card transaction data for February brought upon some elements of concern as purchase volumes in big box stores (i.e. Walmart, Soriana, La Comer, etc.) declined by almost 3% year-over-year (YoY).
Aside from three months in the peak of the pandemic, this is the first time that card transactions in big box stores record an annual contraction in purchase volumes.
The annual contraction came in despite having a 5% increase in total transactions across the country. This implies that the average purchase declined by more than 8% YoY in one of the most resilient categories for Mexican households.
We find this decline particularly concerning because: